Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1255 MDT 06:04 → ATL 08:02 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2857 MDT 18:22 → ATL 20:35 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1255 Delta Flight history →	MDT 06:04	ATL 08:02	7%	3%	0.9%	91%
DL 1248 Delta Flight history →	MDT 11:41	ATL 13:42	9%	3%	0.8%	86%
DL 1354 Delta	MDT 15:05	ATL 17:13	12%	4%	0.9%	no record
DL 2857 Delta Flight history →	MDT 18:22	ATL 20:35	16%	5%	1.0%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON