Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 4714 at 06:30, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4714 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MDT 06:30	BOS 08:01	5%	2%	0.7%	96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDT 06:04 → ATL 08:02DL 1255	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855	6h 41m	99%	88%
American Details →	MDT 06:45 → PHL 07:40AA 6013 · flown by Piedmont	2h 50m Philadelphia	PHL 10:30 → BOS 12:03AA 1416	5h 18m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MDT 06:15 → DTW 07:52DL 4787 · flown by Endeavor	2h 13m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → BOS 12:00DL 2648	5h 45m	98%	87%
United Details →	MDT 06:15 → IAD 07:13UA 4244 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 22m Dulles	IAD 08:35 → BOS 10:20UA 641	4h 05m	93%	84%
American Details →	MDT 05:00 → CLT 06:44AA 6100 · flown by Piedmont	2h 57m Charlotte	CLT 09:41 → BOS 11:53AA 2263	6h 53m	99%	83%
United Details →	MDT 06:30 → ORD 07:42UA 2684	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 09:03 → BOS 12:24UA 1367	5h 54m	95%	82%
American Details →	MDT 06:31 → CLT 08:20AA 5833 · flown by Piedmont	3h 00m Charlotte	CLT 11:20 → BOS 13:32AA 885	7h 01m	97%	81%
American Details →	MDT 10:36 → PHL 11:34AA 5829 · flown by Piedmont	2h 05m Philadelphia	PHL 13:39 → BOS 14:54AA 3186	4h 18m	100%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MDT 19:38 → PHL 20:39AA 5965 · flown by Piedmont	1h 11m Philadelphia	PHL 21:50 → BOS 23:13AA 834	3h 35m	69%	46%
American Details →	MDT 15:30 → CLT 17:18AA 5832 · flown by Piedmont	1h 16m Charlotte	CLT 18:34 → BOS 20:59AA 2595	5h 29m	67%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON