Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 5638 at 08:24 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 5638 MDT 08:24 → CLT 10:08 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest OH 5634 MDT 17:56 → CLT 19:39 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5638 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MDT 08:24	CLT 10:08	10%	6%	3.3%	88%
AA 3246 American	MDT 10:06	CLT 11:46	13%	5%	1.2%	no record
OH 5634 PSA	MDT 17:56	CLT 19:39	20%	10%	1.6%	no record
AA 5833 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	MDT 06:31	CLT 08:20	9%	4%	0.0%	91%
AA 6100 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	MDT 05:00	CLT 06:44	11%	6%	1.4%	89%
AA 5786 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	MDT 10:40	CLT 12:25	14%	3%	0.0%	86%
AA 6134 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	MDT 13:37	CLT 15:25	15%	0%	2.4%	85%
AA 5835 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	MDT 12:02	CLT 13:48	25%	10%	0.0%	75%
AA 5832 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	MDT 15:30	CLT 17:18	41%	16%	0.0%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON