tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 11:41, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 977 American Flight history → MDT 07:05 DFW 09:31 10% 5% 1.5% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Harrisburg). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MDT 06:04 → ATL 08:02DL 1255 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12DL 961 6h 08m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → MDT 06:30 → BOS 08:01AA 4714 · flown by Republic 1h 00m Boston BOS 09:01 → DFW 12:19AA 479 6h 49m 95% 81%
AmericanDetails → MDT 08:44 → PHL 09:59AA 6056 · flown by Piedmont 1h 54m Philadelphia PHL 11:53 → DFW 14:32AA 241 6h 48m 95% 77%
UnitedDetails → MDT 06:30 → ORD 07:42UA 2684 2h 47m Chicago ORD 10:29 → DFW 13:12UA 441 7h 42m 98% 76%
AmericanDetails → MDT 08:24 → CLT 10:08AA 5638 · flown by PSA 2h 50m Charlotte CLT 12:58 → DFW 14:51AA 1690 7h 27m 99% 73%
AmericanDetails → MDT 06:32 → CLT 08:11AA 6070 · flown by Piedmont 1h 14m Charlotte CLT 09:25 → DFW 11:12AA 575 5h 40m 94% 73%
DeltaDetails → MDT 18:22 → ATL 20:35DL 2857 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818 6h 51m 97% 71%
DeltaDetails → MDT 11:41 → ATL 13:42DL 1248 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 16:10 → DFW 17:27DL 374 6h 46m 99% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON