Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 4974 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	MDT 10:30	IAD 11:28	13%	7%	1.3%	87%
UA 4244 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	MDT 06:15	IAD 07:13	13%	5%	1.7%	87%
UA 4268 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	MDT 14:52	IAD 15:50	15%	7%	1.1%	85%
UA 4882 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	MDT 19:59	IAD 20:57	22%	13%	7.1%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON