Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 739 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 41–43%.

Safest bet that day AA 739 MDT 05:58 → ORD 07:05 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3243 MDT 19:45 → ORD 21:16 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 739 American	MDT 05:58	ORD 07:05	8%	7%	1.8%	no record
UA 2684 United Flight history →	MDT 06:30	ORD 07:42	9%	4%	1.3%	85%
OO 6054 SkyWest	MDT 10:41	ORD 11:44	22%	9%	1.9%	no record
MQ 4212 Envoy	MDT 12:25	ORD 13:29	22%	6%	1.6%	no record
YX 3463 Republic	MDT 14:08	ORD 15:18	27%	12%	2.6%	no record
UA 2134 United	MDT 17:52	ORD 19:02	41%	22%	2.4%	no record
AA 3243 American Flight history →	MDT 19:45	ORD 21:16	43%	21%	3.5%	62%
UA 4185 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	MDT 10:40	ORD 11:56	6%	3%	0.0%	94%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON