Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4432 at 09:50 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 44%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4432 Southwest	MDW 09:50	ABQ 11:52	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3543 Southwest	MDW 22:10	ABQ 00:14	44%	9%	1.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 17:54 → ABQ 19:14DL 8790	9h 09m	99%	70%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:49 → MSP 15:33DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	2h 38m Minneapolis	MSP 18:11 → ABQ 19:55DL 730	7h 06m	89%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON