Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4715 at 13:05 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4715 Southwest	MDW 13:05	ALB 16:07	16%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 2134 Southwest	MDW 19:05	ALB 22:06	35%	10%	2.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albany on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albany is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	3h 00m Detroit	DTW 14:35 → ALB 16:15DL 3809 · flown by SkyWest	5h 58m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	1h 12m Atlanta	ATL 15:13 → ALB 17:36DL 1241	5h 31m	90%	69%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	1h 16m Atlanta	ATL 21:38 → ALB 23:59DL 2584	5h 49m	81%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON