Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 209 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 209 MDW 05:05 → ATL 08:15 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2144 MDW 18:41 → ATL 21:57 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 209 Southwest	MDW 05:05	ATL 08:15	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 1285 Delta Flight history →	MDW 06:00	ATL 08:57	6%	2%	0.8%	90%
WN 1207 Southwest	MDW 08:30	ATL 11:40	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1063 Delta Flight history →	MDW 11:05	ATL 14:01	13%	3%	1.0%	90%
F9 2292 Frontier Flight history →	MDW 06:05	ATL 09:22	17%	6%	1.1%	71%
DL 2417 Delta Flight history →	MDW 12:41	ATL 15:43	17%	4%	1.1%	86%
WN 4417 Southwest	MDW 13:15	ATL 16:24	19%	5%	0.9%	no record
DL 1728 Delta Flight history →	MDW 17:10	ATL 20:22	25%	8%	4.4%	74%
WN 3274 Southwest	MDW 17:36	ATL 20:34	33%	11%	5.2%	no record
WN 2118 Southwest	MDW 19:20	ATL 22:30	34%	10%	2.1%	no record
F9 2144 Frontier Flight history →	MDW 18:41	ATL 21:57	37%	14%	6.1%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON