Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2842 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 2842 MDW 07:50 → BOS 11:11 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3645 MDW 19:01 → BOS 22:23 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2842 Southwest	MDW 07:50	BOS 11:11	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4535 Southwest	MDW 04:58	BOS 08:16	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2525 Southwest	MDW 13:00	BOS 16:22	24%	8%	0.9%	no record
WN 4942 Southwest	MDW 14:38	BOS 17:59	25%	9%	0.9%	no record
WN 3645 Southwest	MDW 19:01	BOS 22:23	34%	11%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON