Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2012 at 07:38 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2012 Southwest	MDW 07:38	BUF 10:16	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 320 Southwest	MDW 19:10	BUF 21:47	33%	10%	2.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	3h 47m Minneapolis	MSP 15:22 → BUF 18:24DL 1749	7h 30m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 16:33 → BUF 18:41DL 2050	6h 36m	97%	71%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 21:52 → BUF 23:59DL 2334	5h 49m	86%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MDW 18:58 → DTW 21:19DL 4690 · flown by Endeavor	1h 31m Detroit	DTW 22:50 → BUF 23:58DL 978	4h 00m	73%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON