Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 467 at 13:00 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 467 Southwest	MDW 13:00	CLT 15:51	22%	5%	1.0%	no record
WN 4904 Southwest	MDW 19:05	CLT 21:56	37%	9%	2.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → CLT 11:26DL 3190	4h 26m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	2h 30m Detroit	DTW 14:05 → CLT 15:55DL 1429	5h 38m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	3h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → CLT 18:49DL 2821	7h 55m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 17:00 → CLT 18:19DL 3158	6h 14m	98%	70%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177	5h 48m	93%	70%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 19:00 → CLT 20:11DL 2132	6h 30m	98%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 21:22 → CLT 22:32DL 8853	4h 22m	75%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON