Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1252 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 1252 MDW 07:50 → CMH 10:11 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 384 MDW 19:01 → CMH 21:22 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1252 Southwest	MDW 07:50	CMH 10:11	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4755 Southwest	MDW 12:50	CMH 15:11	14%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 143 Southwest	MDW 15:30	CMH 17:51	21%	9%	6.9%	no record
WN 384 Southwest	MDW 19:01	CMH 21:22	37%	12%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON