Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2869 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 2869 MDW 05:30 → DCA 08:31 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1088 MDW 16:45 → DCA 19:46 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2869 Southwest	MDW 05:30	DCA 08:31	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1762 Southwest	MDW 09:26	DCA 12:24	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3631 Southwest	MDW 12:00	DCA 15:01	19%	6%	1.2%	no record
WN 2645 Southwest	MDW 14:10	DCA 17:11	22%	9%	1.5%	no record
WN 4305 Southwest	MDW 20:11	DCA 23:11	34%	13%	4.9%	no record
WN 1088 Southwest	MDW 16:45	DCA 19:46	37%	15%	6.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON