Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2875 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–46%.

Safest bet that day WN 2875 MDW 06:00 → DEN 07:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2275 MDW 17:20 → DEN 18:56 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2875 Southwest	MDW 06:00	DEN 07:35	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1529 Southwest	MDW 08:30	DEN 10:06	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1071 Southwest	MDW 10:55	DEN 12:30	14%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 2878 Southwest	MDW 12:20	DEN 13:55	22%	6%	1.0%	no record
WN 2073 Southwest	MDW 15:05	DEN 16:40	36%	14%	6.9%	no record
WN 2880 Southwest	MDW 21:25	DEN 23:01	37%	12%	2.0%	no record
WN 2275 Southwest	MDW 17:20	DEN 18:56	46%	15%	5.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON