Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 654 at 09:51 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 43%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 654 Southwest	MDW 09:51	DSM 11:13	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3512 Southwest	MDW 21:30	DSM 22:52	43%	14%	2.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 12:25 → DSM 13:34DL 2094	7h 34m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086	6h 47m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → DSM 14:05DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor	4h 11m	91%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	53m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DSM 22:29DL 2306	5h 19m	73%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON