tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 09:54, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor 3h 10m Minneapolis MSP 14:45 → IAH 17:39DL 2644 7h 45m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 7h 33m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor 50m Detroit DTW 12:25 → IAH 14:32DL 1307 5h 15m 82% 69%
DeltaDetails → MDW 13:49 → MSP 15:33DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor 3h 07m Minneapolis MSP 18:40 → IAH 21:35DL 2683 7h 46m 92% 69%
DeltaDetails → MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 19:00 → IAH 20:14DL 2327 7h 33m 98% 68%
DeltaDetails → MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 16:23 → IAH 17:35DL 1131 6h 30m 97% 68%
DeltaDetails → MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 6h 47m 95% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON