Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2152 at 10:30 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 39%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2152 Southwest	MDW 10:30	ICT 12:27	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4277 Southwest	MDW 21:53	ICT 23:49	39%	13%	1.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wichita on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 11:14 → ICT 12:34DL 828	6h 34m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	MDW 10:21 → MSP 11:52DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 13:23 → ICT 15:15DL 3807 · flown by SkyWest	4h 54m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 16:31 → ICT 17:47DL 2128	6h 42m	97%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON