Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1963 at 10:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 38%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1963 Southwest	MDW 10:00	IND 12:06	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1931 Southwest	MDW 21:30	IND 23:36	38%	13%	2.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013	5h 36m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → IND 15:33DL 2910	4h 39m	93%	81%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 17:25 → IND 19:03DL 3120	6h 58m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 23:04 → IND 00:41 +1DL 2657	6h 31m	95%	75%
Southwest Details →	MDW 16:25 → TPA 20:14WN 393	1h 36m Tampa	TPA 21:50 → IND 00:15 +1WN 3856	6h 50m	100%	75%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:26 → DTW 15:44DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	1h 58m Detroit	DTW 17:42 → IND 19:00DL 5034 · flown by Endeavor	4h 34m	90%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MDW 18:58 → DTW 21:19DL 4690 · flown by Endeavor	1h 31m Detroit	DTW 22:50 → IND 00:07 +1DL 5095 · flown by Endeavor	4h 09m	73%	51%
Delta Details →	MDW 19:06 → MSP 20:51DL 4713 · flown by Endeavor	49m Minneapolis	MSP 21:40 → IND 00:16 +1DL 674	4h 10m	52%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON