Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3544 at 15:40, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3544 Southwest	MDW 15:40	JAX 19:04	28%	9%	5.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	3h 27m Detroit	DTW 15:02 → JAX 17:27DL 2994	7h 10m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 10:48 → JAX 12:00DL 2923	5h 00m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 22m Minneapolis	MSP 12:57 → JAX 16:54DL 2392	6h 00m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 16:41 → JAX 17:56DL 2440	5h 51m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 17:51 → JAX 19:13DL 2189	5h 32m	96%	68%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 21:33 → JAX 22:49DL 2315	4h 39m	79%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON