Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2898 at 05:21 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 45–49%.

Safest bet that day WN 2898 MDW 05:21 → LAS 07:12 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2923 MDW 21:40 → LAS 23:31 · 49% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2898 Southwest	MDW 05:21	LAS 07:12	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2901 Southwest	MDW 07:21	LAS 09:10	11%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2900 Southwest	MDW 11:31	LAS 13:21	29%	5%	1.0%	no record
WN 2921 Southwest	MDW 15:12	LAS 17:05	38%	11%	6.8%	no record
WN 1841 Southwest	MDW 20:25	LAS 22:19	45%	11%	4.0%	no record
WN 1436 Southwest	MDW 18:35	LAS 20:25	45%	12%	5.3%	no record
WN 2923 Southwest	MDW 21:40	LAS 23:31	49%	11%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON