Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1572 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 43–46%.

Safest bet that day WN 1572 MDW 06:55 → LAX 09:12 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 246 MDW 22:30 → LAX 00:51 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1572 Southwest	MDW 06:55	LAX 09:12	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 673 Southwest	MDW 10:25	LAX 12:42	21%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 1660 Southwest	MDW 17:40	LAX 19:59	43%	11%	5.1%	no record
WN 246 Southwest	MDW 22:30	LAX 00:51	46%	14%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON