Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2905 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 42–44%.

Safest bet that day WN 2905 MDW 05:05 → LGA 08:15 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 575 MDW 19:25 → LGA 22:34 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2905 Southwest	MDW 05:05	LGA 08:15	3%	1%	1.3%	no record
WN 1895 Southwest	MDW 08:57	LGA 11:56	11%	3%	1.5%	no record
WN 3737 Southwest	MDW 10:10	LGA 13:20	15%	5%	2.4%	no record
WN 2908 Southwest	MDW 12:55	LGA 16:05	28%	9%	2.5%	no record
WN 3564 Southwest	MDW 14:40	LGA 17:49	32%	12%	2.5%	no record
WN 661 Southwest	MDW 17:45	LGA 20:54	42%	11%	5.9%	no record
WN 575 Southwest	MDW 19:25	LGA 22:34	44%	11%	5.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON