Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2070 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 2070 MDW 07:30 → MCI 09:06 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2007 MDW 21:25 → MCI 23:00 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2070 Southwest	MDW 07:30	MCI 09:06	5%	2%	3.5%	no record
WN 2194 Southwest	MDW 09:10	MCI 10:44	8%	2%	1.8%	no record
WN 2914 Southwest	MDW 12:00	MCI 13:34	17%	4%	3.9%	no record
WN 4476 Southwest	MDW 13:35	MCI 15:09	19%	6%	1.8%	no record
WN 417 Southwest	MDW 16:30	MCI 18:05	28%	10%	7.4%	no record
WN 1559 Southwest	MDW 22:50	MCI 00:26	32%	9%	2.0%	no record
WN 2007 Southwest	MDW 21:25	MCI 23:00	35%	11%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON