Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2919 at 05:11 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 2919 MDW 05:11 → MCO 08:48 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3032 MDW 19:01 → MCO 22:38 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2919 Southwest	MDW 05:11	MCO 08:48	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2939 Southwest	MDW 07:36	MCO 11:13	7%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 482 Southwest	MDW 09:01	MCO 12:39	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 1675 Southwest	MDW 12:25	MCO 16:02	26%	9%	1.5%	no record
WN 2651 Southwest	MDW 13:55	MCO 17:32	29%	10%	1.1%	no record
WN 1871 Southwest	MDW 17:25	MCO 21:02	35%	14%	4.7%	no record
WN 3032 Southwest	MDW 19:01	MCO 22:38	37%	15%	2.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON