Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 558 at 09:55 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 558 Southwest	MDW 09:55	MEM 11:40	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2775 Southwest	MDW 22:20	MEM 00:05	36%	8%	1.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	6h 32m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → MEM 17:06DL 1681	6h 01m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 17:52 → MEM 18:15DL 2939	5h 34m	96%	66%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 21:49 → MEM 22:12DL 1577	5h 02m	86%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON