Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 2198 at 07:40, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2198 Southwest	MDW 07:40	MIA 11:47	20%	4%	3.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 14:24 → MSP 15:55DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	2h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187	8h 11m	96%	70%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332	6h 07m	97%	69%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 45m	94%	64%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → MIA 18:22DL 719	6h 17m	97%	51%
Frontier Details →	MDW 12:45 → DFW 15:18F9 2999	2h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:58 → MIA 22:02F9 2676	8h 17m	90%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON