Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 382 at 10:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 44%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 382 Southwest	MDW 10:00	MKE 10:52	10%	3%	1.0%	no record
WN 3238 Southwest	MDW 21:40	MKE 22:31	44%	15%	3.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 10:51 → MKE 11:53DL 1151	5h 53m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	2h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 13:54 → MKE 15:09DL 2006	5h 15m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → MKE 17:40DL 1206	6h 35m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 22:52 → MKE 23:56DL 1268	6h 46m	95%	74%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:26 → DTW 15:44DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	1h 57m Detroit	DTW 17:41 → MKE 18:00DL 3675 · flown by SkyWest	4h 34m	89%	67%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	54m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → MKE 17:41DL 8888	5h 00m	79%	61%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	50m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MKE 12:42DL 5476 · flown by Endeavor	3h 27m	82%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON