Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 580 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 580 MDW 07:45 → MSP 09:16 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3651 MDW 22:41 → MSP 00:17 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 580 Southwest	MDW 07:45	MSP 09:16	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4406 Southwest	MDW 09:50	MSP 11:21	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3552 Southwest	MDW 14:30	MSP 16:01	17%	6%	1.2%	no record
WN 840 Southwest	MDW 16:45	MSP 18:16	28%	11%	5.8%	no record
WN 3651 Southwest	MDW 22:41	MSP 00:17	31%	12%	2.9%	no record
DL 5469 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MDW 09:54	MSP 11:35	11%	2%	0.0%	89%
DL 4820 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MDW 13:49	MSP 15:33	32%	19%	3.6%	68%
DL 4713 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MDW 19:06	MSP 20:51	38%	25%	0.0%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON