Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4445 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 4445 MDW 07:11 → MSY 09:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2937 MDW 21:30 → MSY 23:54 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4445 Southwest	MDW 07:11	MSY 09:35	4%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 1587 Southwest	MDW 10:40	MSY 13:05	10%	3%	1.1%	no record
WN 494 Southwest	MDW 16:25	MSY 18:50	29%	14%	6.3%	no record
WN 2937 Southwest	MDW 21:30	MSY 23:54	40%	13%	2.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON