Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 839 at 16:30, with a 32% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 839 Southwest	MDW 16:30	MYR 19:39	32%	13%	5.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Myrtle Beach is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182	6h 00m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07DL 1093	7h 02m	99%	68%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → MYR 23:55DL 3074	5h 45m	93%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON