Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4459 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4459 Southwest	MDW 07:40	ORF 10:55	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 392 Southwest	MDW 19:05	ORF 22:25	34%	10%	2.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 12:28 → ORF 14:14DL 2925	7h 14m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 23:45 → ORF 01:19 +1DL 2338	7h 09m	97%	73%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 17:07 → ORF 18:54DL 1346	6h 49m	98%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON