Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 19:06, is the safest bet: 41% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2950 Southwest	MDW 23:36	PDX 01:55	29%	7%	1.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	8h 58m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503	9h 51m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:49 → MSP 15:33DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	3h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 18:34 → PDX 20:15DL 2151	8h 26m	91%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MDW 19:06 → MSP 20:51DL 4713 · flown by Endeavor	47m Minneapolis	MSP 21:38 → PDX 23:18DL 2391	6h 12m	51%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON