Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1880 at 05:18 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 45–46%.

Safest bet that day WN 1880 MDW 05:18 → PHX 06:52 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4968 MDW 21:35 → PHX 23:19 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1880 Southwest	MDW 05:18	PHX 06:52	5%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 9002 Southwest	MDW 08:52	PHX 10:25	12%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 800 Southwest	MDW 07:22	PHX 09:05	13%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 2528 Southwest	MDW 11:58	PHX 13:37	22%	5%	1.0%	no record
WN 427 Southwest	MDW 15:05	PHX 16:46	33%	9%	5.5%	no record
WN 2961 Southwest	MDW 20:10	PHX 21:45	45%	12%	2.9%	no record
WN 4968 Southwest	MDW 21:35	PHX 23:19	46%	14%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON