tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1316 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1316 Southwest MDW 07:40 RIC 10:42 5% 2% 0.7% no record
WN 1229 Southwest MDW 19:55 RIC 22:55 31% 11% 2.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor 2h 50m Detroit DTW 14:25 → RIC 16:06DL 3073 5h 49m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285 1h 18m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650 4h 56m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063 1h 44m Atlanta ATL 15:45 → RIC 17:26DL 1214 5h 21m 95% 73%
DeltaDetails → MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 23:33 → RIC 01:11 +1DL 1175 7h 01m 97% 72%
DeltaDetails → MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 19:27 → RIC 21:04DL 1263 7h 23m 98% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON