Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 193 at 09:55 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 38%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 193 Southwest	MDW 09:55	SAT 12:50	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2982 Southwest	MDW 21:25	SAT 00:21	38%	11%	2.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408	7h 38m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	2h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 14:20 → SAT 17:11DL 2580	7h 17m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	2h 06m Detroit	DTW 13:41 → SAT 15:51DL 2458	6h 34m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 15:40 → SAT 17:11DL 1465	6h 06m	94%	71%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:49 → MSP 15:33DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	3h 02m Minneapolis	MSP 18:35 → SAT 21:26DL 2773	7h 37m	91%	68%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 17:21 → SAT 18:55DL 2893	6h 14m	92%	66%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → SAT 00:20 +1DL 1508	7h 10m	95%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON