Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 19:06, is the safest bet: 38% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4367 Southwest	MDW 10:05	SFO 12:43	28%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 2199 Southwest	MDW 21:30	SFO 00:10	49%	17%	2.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	3h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756	9h 18m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → SFO 20:17DL 495	11h 12m	99%	64%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:49 → MSP 15:33DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	3h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 18:50 → SFO 20:57DL 2809	9h 08m	94%	62%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → SFO 00:36 +1DL 656	9h 26m	93%	60%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 19:33 → SFO 21:32DL 681	10h 51m	98%	56%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MDW 19:06 → MSP 20:51DL 4713 · flown by Endeavor	49m Minneapolis	MSP 21:40 → SFO 23:46DL 2089	6h 40m	52%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON