Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3475 at 09:30 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3475 Southwest	MDW 09:30	SRQ 13:18	12%	3%	1.6%	no record
WN 2036 Southwest	MDW 20:15	SRQ 00:03	36%	11%	6.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104	4h 44m	94%	82%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997	6h 35m	94%	71%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 15:34 → SRQ 17:13DL 3109	5h 08m	93%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	53m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057	4h 42m	71%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON