Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 372 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 372 MDW 08:15 → STL 09:34 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4402 MDW 21:30 → STL 22:50 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 372 Southwest	MDW 08:15	STL 09:34	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3107 Southwest	MDW 11:51	STL 13:10	16%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 1339 Southwest	MDW 15:00	STL 16:19	25%	9%	4.3%	no record
WN 4402 Southwest	MDW 21:30	STL 22:50	38%	12%	2.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON