Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3002 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 3002 MDW 06:55 → TPA 10:37 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3008 MDW 19:30 → TPA 23:13 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3002 Southwest	MDW 06:55	TPA 10:37	5%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 3003 Southwest	MDW 09:20	TPA 13:03	10%	3%	1.7%	no record
WN 393 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 16:25	TPA 20:14	32%	11%	5.0%	81%worse than usual
WN 3008 Southwest	MDW 19:30	TPA 23:13	35%	11%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON