Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1104 at 10:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1104 Southwest	MDW 10:10	TUL 12:09	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 301 Southwest	MDW 21:25	TUL 23:25	34%	9%	1.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620	5h 56m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837	6h 59m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 22:18 → TUL 23:19DL 2043	6h 09m	91%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON