Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 164 Southwest	MEM 09:50	AUS 11:50	7%	2%	0.9%	no record
DL 4088 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MEM 06:45	AUS 08:37	9%	5%	0.8%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → AUS 11:03DL 2886	5h 48m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	1h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 10:10 → AUS 12:50DL 2062	6h 50m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011	6h 05m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	MEM 08:27 → ATL 10:51DL 5247 · flown by Endeavor	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104	5h 27m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397	6h 23m	98%	76%
American Details →	MEM 05:13 → CLT 08:01AA 1846	1h 49m Charlotte	CLT 09:50 → AUS 11:46AA 818	6h 33m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	MEM 07:15 → SLC 09:33DL 2290	1h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → AUS 14:50DL 3955 · flown by SkyWest	7h 35m	93%	74%
United Details →	MEM 07:25 → ORD 09:30UA 247	2h 17m Chicago	ORD 11:47 → AUS 14:41UA 1061	7h 16m	97%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON