tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3012 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3012 Southwest MEM 08:15 BNA 09:23 5% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 1626 Southwest MEM 18:40 BNA 19:48 22% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → BNA 09:50DL 1155 4h 35m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 10m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370 2h 58m Detroit DTW 12:25 → BNA 13:03DL 1557 6h 31m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → MEM 06:18 → LGA 10:18AA 4564 · flown by Republic 1h 24m New York LGA 11:42 → BNA 13:14AA 4481 · flown by Republic 6h 56m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → MEM 05:13 → CLT 08:01AA 1846 3h 24m Charlotte CLT 11:25 → BNA 11:55AA 2409 6h 42m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → MEM 08:27 → ATL 10:51DL 5247 · flown by Endeavor 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159 5h 36m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 14:25 → BNA 14:38DL 790 5h 11m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → MEM 07:03 → CLT 09:50AA 978 3h 28m Charlotte CLT 13:18 → BNA 13:49AA 538 6h 46m 99% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MEM 15:48 → DFW 17:31AA 1086 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:18 → BNA 20:17AA 1076 4h 29m 53% 30%
UnitedDetails → MEM 18:35 → ORD 20:40UA 5336 · flown by SkyWest 57m Chicago ORD 21:37 → BNA 23:11UA 314 4h 36m 52% 22%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON