Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 5604 at 06:00, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5604 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 06:00	BOS 10:01	6%	2%	0.6%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855	6h 30m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862	6h 27m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	1h 51m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → BOS 13:51DL 2655	6h 51m	98%	84%
American Details →	MEM 05:13 → CLT 08:01AA 1846	3h 19m Charlotte	CLT 11:20 → BOS 13:32AA 885	7h 19m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	MEM 07:05 → LGA 11:00DL 5607 · flown by Republic	2h 00m New York	LGA 13:00 → BOS 14:23DL 5758 · flown by Republic	6h 18m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 13:58 → BOS 16:44DL 726	6h 17m	98%	79%
United Details →	MEM 06:00 → EWR 09:43UA 3642 · flown by Republic	1h 39m Newark	EWR 11:22 → BOS 12:33UA 1669	5h 33m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	MEM 16:21 → ATL 18:51DL 1700	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865	7h 59m	98%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MEM 09:46 → ORD 11:57UA 5672 · flown by SkyWest	46m Chicago	ORD 12:43 → BOS 16:04UA 2401	5h 18m	68%	47%
United Details →	MEM 18:35 → ORD 20:40UA 5336 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 21:41 → BOS 01:14 +1UA 1779	5h 39m	55%	30%
American Details →	MEM 17:33 → ORD 19:37AA 4651 · flown by Republic	52m Chicago	ORD 20:29 → BOS 00:05 +1AA 2682	5h 32m	39%	17%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON