Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3555 at 14:25, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3555 Southwest	MEM 14:25	BWI 17:41	20%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → BWI 10:47DL 801	4h 32m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711	5h 41m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370	48m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546	4h 15m	91%	81%
American Details →	MEM 06:36 → ORD 08:45AA 3758 · flown by Envoy	1h 06m Chicago	ORD 09:51 → BWI 12:53AA 4253 · flown by Envoy	5h 17m	94%	81%
American Details →	MEM 05:13 → CLT 08:01AA 1846	3h 30m Charlotte	CLT 11:31 → BWI 13:09AA 2733	6h 56m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799	5h 26m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	MEM 11:46 → ATL 14:15DL 82	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 17:57 → BWI 20:02DL 2928	7h 16m	100%	74%
American Details →	MEM 07:13 → DFW 09:14AA 1825	1h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:59 → BWI 15:18AA 2669	7h 05m	95%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MEM 14:22 → ORD 16:29UA 5780 · flown by SkyWest	1h 22m Chicago	ORD 17:51 → BWI 20:51UA 1557	5h 29m	72%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON