Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 978 at 07:03 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 978 MEM 07:03 → CLT 09:50 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1786 MEM 17:57 → CLT 20:45 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 978 American Flight history →	MEM 07:03	CLT 09:50	9%	6%	1.5%	90%
AA 1846 American Flight history →	MEM 05:13	CLT 08:01	9%	5%	1.1%	88%
AA 1790 American Flight history →	MEM 10:53	CLT 13:40	16%	5%	0.9%	95%worse than usual
AA 1636 American	MEM 14:31	CLT 17:22	24%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 1786 American Flight history →	MEM 17:57	CLT 20:45	28%	7%	0.9%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON