Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1246 Southwest	MEM 11:10	DAL 12:47	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 2460 Southwest	MEM 14:35	DAL 16:11	21%	6%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115	6h 09m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	MEM 08:27 → ATL 10:51DL 5247 · flown by Endeavor	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	6h 36m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	MEM 11:46 → ATL 14:15DL 82	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	6h 08m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	MEM 16:21 → ATL 18:51DL 1700	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	6h 04m	96%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON