Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4732 at 06:36 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–26%.

Safest bet that day YX 4732 MEM 06:36 → DCA 09:55 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4444 MEM 18:26 → DCA 21:44 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4732 Republic	MEM 06:36	DCA 09:55	6%	2%	0.9%	no record
AA 2953 American	MEM 10:35	DCA 13:48	18%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 4444 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 18:26	DCA 21:44	26%	7%	2.2%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON