Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2370 Delta Flight history →	MEM 06:32	DTW 09:27	6%	5%	0.8%	89%
DL 1627 Delta	MEM 10:30	DTW 13:24	10%	4%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	6h 41m	99%	84%
American Details →	MEM 06:18 → LGA 10:18AA 4564 · flown by Republic	1h 15m New York	LGA 11:33 → DTW 13:39AA 4339 · flown by Republic	6h 21m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	MEM 07:05 → LGA 11:00DL 5607 · flown by Republic	1h 50m New York	LGA 12:50 → DTW 14:46DL 1122	6h 41m	98%	82%
American Details →	MEM 05:13 → CLT 08:01AA 1846	3h 18m Charlotte	CLT 11:19 → DTW 13:06AA 1683	6h 53m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	MEM 08:27 → ATL 10:51DL 5247 · flown by Endeavor	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → DTW 15:55DL 1031	6h 28m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	46m Minneapolis	MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433	4h 42m	87%	79%
Delta Details →	MEM 12:09 → MSP 14:22DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest	1h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59DL 1476	5h 50m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	MEM 11:46 → ATL 14:15DL 82	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478	7h 27m	100%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MEM 18:35 → ORD 20:40UA 5336 · flown by SkyWest	49m Chicago	ORD 21:29 → DTW 23:51UA 349	4h 16m	44%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON