tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: UA 3642 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 3642 United flown by Republic Flight history → MEM 06:00 EWR 09:43 5% 2% 1.9% 95%
YX 3613 Republic MEM 16:12 EWR 19:51 27% 9% 2.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 6h 06m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370 48m Detroit DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577 4h 24m 91% 80%
AmericanDetails → MEM 05:13 → CLT 08:01AA 1846 2h 29m Charlotte CLT 10:30 → EWR 12:21AA 1697 6h 08m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest 56m Minneapolis MSP 09:10 → EWR 12:47DL 2895 5h 47m 93% 79%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312 6h 56m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:00 → BOS 10:01DL 5604 · flown by Republic 2h 54m Boston BOS 12:55 → EWR 14:22DL 5829 · flown by Republic 7h 22m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → MEM 07:25 → ORD 09:30UA 247 1h 21m Chicago ORD 10:51 → EWR 14:17UA 1856 5h 52m 94% 70%
DeltaDetails → MEM 08:27 → ATL 10:51DL 5247 · flown by Endeavor 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 13:09 → EWR 15:24DL 2322 5h 57m 96% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MEM 15:48 → DFW 17:31AA 1086 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:29 → EWR 23:12AA 618 6h 24m 63% 35%
UnitedDetails → MEM 18:35 → ORD 20:40UA 5336 · flown by SkyWest 50m Chicago ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209 5h 18m 44% 22%
UnitedDetails → MEM 14:22 → ORD 16:29UA 5780 · flown by SkyWest 58m Chicago ORD 17:27 → EWR 20:50UA 1630 5h 28m 52% 21%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON